02 Apr 20
@eladar saidWhat is your belief then?
It is not my belief that the deaths will stop with summer, it is the experts.
You keep changing your mind.
02 Apr 20
@wolfgang59 saidActually my belief about this thing has not changed at all.
What is your belief then?
You keep changing your mind.
03 Apr 20
@eladar saidThe belief that it would be no worse than a typical year of flu.
Actually my belief about this thing has not changed at all.
That belief.
Or the belief that sunshine would kill it.
That belief.
Or the belief only New York and big cities would suffer.
That belief.
03 Apr 20
@wolfgang59 saidSo far 60k dead is still within reason.
The belief that it would be no worse than a typical year of flu.
That belief.
Or the belief that sunshine would kill it.
That belief.
Or the belief only New York and big cities would suffer.
That belief.
The experts say that summer will kill the virus threat.
No city has had nearly as many people killed as New York.
So far I am right on every point.
03 Apr 20
@eladar saidHere's the weather in New Orleans for the month of March: https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-orleans/70112/march-weather/348585
So far 60k dead is still within reason.
The experts say that summer will kill the virus threat.
No city has had nearly as many people killed as New York.
So far I am right on every point.
It hit 80 F or more 20 of the last 21 days.
The death rate in New Orleans is 7 times per capita what it is in NYC.
03 Apr 20
1 edit
@no1marauder saidYou really are not very bright. We need the UV radiation. It is why we need to get to summer.
Here's the weather in New Orleans for the month of March: https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-orleans/70112/march-weather/348585
It hit 80 F or more 20 of the last 21 days.
The death rate in New Orleans is 7 times per capita what it is in NYC.
It is why we need to get to June.
Once you get sick, the UV won't help much. Once again you show you are not very bright.
03 Apr 20
@eladar saidFrom earlier today:
You really are not very bright. We need the UV radiation. It is why we need to get to summer.
It is why we need to get to June.
Once you get sick, the UV won't help much. Once again you show you are not very bright.
Eladar: It will take at least 2 weeks of warm weather to start seeing a trend.
There is no consensus among experts that the coronavirus will be significantly affected by warmer weather:
"Another myth Lipsitch addressed was that since “common cold” coronaviruses are seasonal and decline in the summer, the same will be true for SARS-CoV-2. According to Lipsitch, viruses that are newly introduced to the populations behave differently from those that have been around the general public for a long time."
https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/experts-skeptical-that-warm-weather-will-slow-covid-19-outbreak/699704
You should read the whole article (you won't).
03 Apr 20
Marc Lipsitch, DPhil
Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
(tl;dr) Probably not.
Several people, including the US president, have suggested that the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes, COVID-19, will go away on its own in the warmer weather that will come in the Northern Hemisphere in coming months. Some have even suggested that the experience with SARS in 2003 provides evidence for this assertion.
The short answer is that while we may expect modest declines in the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in warmer, wetter weather and perhaps with the closing of schools in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, it is not reasonable to expect these declines alone to slow transmission enough to make a big dent.
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/
03 Apr 20
1 edit
@no1marauder
Yeah, I misspoke. It is not the heat. It is the UV.
The pandemic in the US will end in June. Until then most people who get sick will get a runny nose, some will get the severe form and some of those will die.
It is the nature of viruses.
By the way, to me warm is more like 90.
03 Apr 20
@eladar saidA runny nose isn't even a symptom of coronavirus.
@no1marauder
Yeah, I misspoke. It is not the heat. It is the UV.
The pandemic in the US will end in June. Until then most people who get sick will get a runny nose, some will get the severe form and some of those will die.
It is the nature of viruses.
By the way, to me warm is more like 90.
So far, up to 20% of cases wind up in the hospital and about a third or a quarter of those have to be sent to the ICU.
03 Apr 20
@no1marauder saidUp to 20 percent, that means less than 20 percent but some areas could get up to 20 percent.
A runny nose isn't even a symptom of coronavirus.
So far, up to 20% of cases wind up in the hospital and about a third or a quarter of those have to be sent to the ICU.
Have you read the graph? Do you know how to read a graph?
03 Apr 20
1 edit
@eladar saidThat's one model that has already been revised in two days to show a 12% increase in projected deaths. It also heavily relies on an assumption that the entire country will adopt government mandated social distancing measures like stay at home orders.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/
Check out the graph
Check out the summer months.
EDIT: And the authors of that study do not rely at all on your "warm weather will stop the virus theory":
Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
You oppose such measures, so you trying to use the study is disingenuous.
03 Apr 20
@eladar saidIt means that's an estimate. The figure is higher in Italy for example; it was a little bit lower in China.
Up to 20 percent, that means less than 20 percent but some areas could get up to 20 percent.
Have you read the graph? Do you know how to read a graph?
03 Apr 20
1 edit
@no1marauder saidWhat is causing the drop in deaths come the summer?
That's one model that has already been revised in two days to show a 12% increase in projected deaths. It also heavily relies on an assumption that the entire country will adopt government mandated social distancing measures like stay at home orders.
Then a new wave come fall?