@eladar saidFrom the authors:
What is causing the drop in deaths come the summer?
Then a new wave come fall?
"Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
Nowhere do they put into their model your "warm weather will stop the virus" theory.
@no1marauder saidLol, social distancing?
From the authors:
"Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
That is funny.
Why the next wave in the fall?
@eladar saidYou cited the study.
Lol, social distancing?
That is funny.
Why the next wave in the fall?
It doesn't say anything about a second wave in the Fall. It says:
"The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
@no1marauder
From page one
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/03/30/the-coronavirus-will-return-in-the-fall-fauci-predicts-but-the-us-will-be-better-prepared/
@eladar saidWhere is Dr. Fauci saying that warm weather will stop the outbreak? Where is he scoffing at social distancing like you do?
@no1marauder
From page one
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/03/30/the-coronavirus-will-return-in-the-fall-fauci-predicts-but-the-us-will-be-better-prepared/
You bluffed with the IHME study and got called; you probably shouldn't play poker.
Can we expect the number of Covid-19 cases to fall this summer?
Lipsitch: Based on our best estimates from other coronaviruses, summer alone is not going to bring transmission to a level where the number of cases shrinks. It’s just going to grow more slowly.
It’s really clear that warmer weather does not stop the transmission or growth of the virus. That’s clear from Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. Singapore and Hong Kong have kept it to a large degree under control, but that’s with incredibly intense control measures. There’s no question that coronaviruses are capable of transmitting in hotter, humid climates.
Dr George Rutherford: Thinking that it’s magically going to go away in April or May or whenever is just that – magical thinking. The projections show quite a bit of transmission out through the summer.
Riley: It’s a completely new virus, so it’s really hard to know what would happen. If you try to extrapolate from [related] viruses, then we don’t expect for this new coronavirus to completely disappear by the summer.
Dr Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology and director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health
Dr Lee W Riley, professor and chair of the Division of Infectious Disease and Vaccinology, UC–Berkeley School of Public Health
Dr George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics, director, Prevention and Public Health Group, UCSF
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/is-coronavirus-seasonal-summer
@no1marauder saidWe will see if that expert knows more than the ones from the UK that proper knob linked and know more than that short guy who speaks for Trump.
Can we expect the number of Covid-19 cases to fall this summer?
Lipsitch: Based on our best estimates from other coronaviruses, summer alone is not going to bring transmission to a level where the number of cases shrinks. It’s just going to grow more slowly.
It’s really clear that warmer weather does not stop the transmission or growth of the virus. That’s clea ...[text shortened]... Health Group, UCSF
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/is-coronavirus-seasonal-summer
@no1marauder saidExplain how it could come back in the fall if it does not go away this summer?
Where is Dr. Fauci saying that warm weather will stop the outbreak? Where is he scoffing at social distancing like you do?
You bluffed with the IHME study and got called; you probably shouldn't play poker.
You really are something else. How can anyone be so stupid is beyond me.
If the deaths drop to next to nothing this summer I will be proven correct. Time will tell.
@eladar saidProper Knob p. 2 of this thread:
We will see if that expert knows more than the ones from the UK that proper knob linked and know more than that short guy who speaks for Trump.
"It's a nice theory, but the problem with it is that we are seeing cases blowing up all over the world now. Brazil has more deaths than Sweden for example. Australia has more confirmed cases than Norway, Ireland and Denmark. There are reports coming out of Manila, Philippines, of hospitals being full of Covid-19 patients. Its currently 33C/92F there, the evidence doesn't fit your theory i'm afraid."
@eladar saidYour childish name calling doesn't change the fact that none of the sources you have cited support your "warm weather will make the virus go away" theory. Those that say the number of victims of the virus will fall dramatically in summer all agree the main factor will be social distancing measures you oppose.
Explain how it could come back in the fall if it does not go away this summer?
You really are something else. How can anyone be so stupid is beyond me.
If the deaths drop to next to nothing this summer I will be proven correct. Time will tell.
@no1marauder saidI said summer not warm weather.
Your childish name calling doesn't change the fact that none of the sources you have cited support your "warm weather will make the virus go away" theory. Those that say the number of victims of the virus will fall dramatically in summer all agree the main factor will be social distancing measures you oppose.
Go back to page one. Read the links I gave.
Explain how the Coronavirus can come back on fall if it does not go away during summer.
@eladar saidBecause virtually everyone would be infected.
Notice the first do nothing graph. When do the death rates drop to zero? Why would they drop to zero by August if people do nothing?