13 Apr 20
@eladar saidOn the way down?
Now that the Coronavirus appears to be on the way down and outside of the Northeast, most states appear to have low Corona Virus rates, how long?
Will some states allow businesses to start up again in a week? In 2 weeks? Sometime in May?
My bold prediction...
First big state to open...Texas, within 2 weeks
Mhmmmm... right, go to the website we both check and look at the graphs for new daily infections and new daily deaths.
You see the large drop on the 12th.
When was the last large drop (on both graphs)? The 5th.
It’s weekend. Less cases and deaths are reported in weekends. Since this is the Easter weekend, the drop will probably extend to the Monday as well.
This weekend fall has been noticed in many countries.
13 Apr 20
@no1marauder saidYou know that for a fact?
Because Texas put in social distancing measures early before any breakout on March 20th when they had only a relatively few number of cases. They didn't listen to people like you.
I am sure it helped, but there is a lot of room between what Texas has seen and what New York has done.
Seeing as how you are a true believer, even being demonstrated wrong over and over again, there is no hope of actual discussion.
My bold prediction still stands.
13 Apr 20
@no1marauder saidThis.
Except the weather's been spring or closer to summer for over a month and Texas' cases have been steadily increasing over that time.
And the weather's about the same in Louisiana and they have a per capita death toll higher than any State but New York and New Jersey.
What the evidence shows is that social distancing is working which is what the experts are saying. Yet you want to abandon it.
@shavixmir saidLook at the deaths since the predicted max death day of the 10th.
On the way down?
Mhmmmm... right, go to the website we both check and look at the graphs for new daily infections and new daily deaths.
You see the large drop on the 12th.
When was the last large drop (on both graphs)? The 5th.
It’s weekend. Less cases and deaths are reported in weekends. Since this is the Easter weekend, the drop will probably extend to the Monday as well.
This weekend fall has been noticed in many countries.
@shavixmir saidYes, and both of you are clueless.
This.
29 million people, 278 deaths over a month and a half. Real pandemic there.
13 Apr 20
In every country where they have put serious forms of lockdown in place, the virus has a month period in which it spikes.
So, the US death toll started it’s increase of 1000+ deaths a day on roughly March 31st.
So, roughly speaking, around April 30th, the daily death rate should drop below 1000.
If everyone sticks to lockdown / social distancing.
End of. And now I’m done with the lot of you.
Good luck and stay safe.
@shavixmir saidYour bold prediction, April 30th
In every country where they have put serious forms of lockdown in place, the virus has a month period in which it spikes.
So, the US death toll started it’s increase of 1000+ deaths a day on roughly March 31st.
So, roughly speaking, around April 30th, the daily death rate should drop below 1000.
If everyone sticks to lockdown / social distancing.
End of. And now I’m done with the lot of you.
Good luck and stay safe.
US deaths below a thousand.
13 Apr 20
@shavixmir saidIt has not been kept in several of the smaller states.
Yes. If lockdown and social distancing is kept up.
April 10th max deaths per day 2035
Today April 12 1528
13 Apr 20
@shavixmir saidThe smaller states have seen very few deaths, even by per million standards. Your prediction is a fail.
Told you it is weekend.
The smaller states are, then, fukked.
13 Apr 20
@shavixmir saidSweden NO lock-down deaths = 0.089/1000
Yes. If lockdown and social distancing is kept up.
Italy lock-down deaths = 0.329/1000
Spain Lock-down deaths = 0.368/1000
Switzerland lock-down deaths = 0.129/1000
And why are these numbers now being expressed as per million when per thousand is usual. I wonder if it is because then we would see how small they really are.
Annual death rates are normally over 7.5/1000 so in the case of spain, worst case scenario, " normal " is 20x this and that is the worst in the world.
I see no " proof " that lock-downs work. I am not claiming to know anything except I see a lot of hysteria over very low numbers.
"Protecting" people also means that you are going to drag it out much longer causing much more pain.
Also any bets that the death toll in the world because of the international response is worse than what the virus does.starvation, less foreign aid, less for healthcare, suicides due to lives destroyed, mortgage defaults etc etc etc.
BTW, I do not have a do nothing approach, this is bad to get, but, fair go, what the hell are we doing. Use individual responsibility and be mindful etc. take care with international travel etc.
look at Sweden, yes some are saying it will get worse there, it will, but really, fine and dandy now. also, if you die while you have corona then a corona death it is. Makes the numbers look better, oh sorry, worse.
I am not claiming to " know " anything but my gut tells me something, besides the virus, is VERY wrong.
13 Apr 20
@jimmac saidSweden has a population density of 25 people per Km2, 40-50% of households are also solo occupancy. They are fairly unique in that regard.
Sweden NO lock-down deaths = 0.089/1000
Italy lock-down deaths = 0.329/1000
Spain Lock-down deaths = 0.368/1000
Switzerland lock-down deaths = 0.129/1000
And why are these numbers now being expressed as per million when per thousand is usual. I wonder if it is because then we would see how small they really are.
Annual death rates ...[text shortened]... m not claiming to " know " anything but my gut tells me something, besides the virus, is VERY wrong.
As for seeing 'no proof' lockdowns work, how about Germany, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan for starters? All have lockdowns and all have lower deaths per population than Sweden.
13 Apr 20
@proper-knob saidanecdotal, but fair enough, the problem is that a downward curve has to happen regardless of whatever approach you take, Sweden " appears " to be doing " worse " , whatever that means, than your examples, but they will not have the same risk of having to go through this again and without the living in fear factor. My main point is I cannot get over feeling that the cure may be worse than the virus.
Sweden has a population density of 25 people per Km2, 40-50% of households are also solo occupancy. They are fairly unique in that regard.
As for seeing 'no proof' lockdowns work, how about Germany, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan for starters? All have lockdowns and all have lower deaths per population than Sweden.