07 Nov 21
@no1marauder saidStop posting websites that provide data you claim is invalid.
Don't care about estimates. Nor have I suggested Florida is likely to experience another surge.
Stop playing like MB and start actually reading my posts.
I have read your posts and you havn't proved anything in them. Stop pretending they are relevant.
When a virus spreads through a population there are less people without immunity to infect. This is just common sense. It isn't as though sh76 is a genius for making his prediction. He is just using common sense and you are not.
07 Nov 21
@sh76 saidWell, we'll see how "minor" the fluctuations are. If they are sufficiently "minor" to not effect the claim that Florida has the lowest rate of new cases, I'll say so.
I didn’t say you did.
I’m saying minor case fluctuations, even if they occur, are insignificant.
For now, I see that claim as comparing Florida's apple to every other State's orange.
@sh76 saidNew York has tested at a rate double that of Florida's and 4th highest in the nation.
Blue states tended to get hammered very early on the pandemic when there was very little testing going on. In March of 2020 NY and NJ were counting maybe between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 infections.
Please don't tell me you think that the COVID impact on NY and NJ are not in the top 20 over-all.
Looking at the list I provided you. are you so confident in your statement provided in the OP i.e. "that government really doesn't have all that much control over COVID spread."? Are you unwilling to admit that policies adopted in red States contributed to the spread of COVID in them?
07 Nov 21
@no1marauder saidNY's testing ramped up well after it got slammed in the initial wave. Come on. You remember March, 2020. Don't you? I don't know what it was like where you live but where I live, something like between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 people got COVID in the Spring of 2020. Testing was a pain in the neck. According to IHME estimates, actual daily infections peaked in NY on March 16. In early March, if you wanted to get COVID-tested, you had to show that you'd been to Wuhan in the past 14 days(!) It wasn't until early April that you could just walk into a testing center and get tested. By the late Spring/summer, you could walk in and get tested asymptomatically just for the Hell of if or because you wanted to visit grandma and wanted to make sure you didn't have COVID), but by that point, COVID had receded.
New York has tested at a rate double that of Florida's and 4th highest in the nation.
Looking at the list I provided you. are you so confident in your statement provided in the OP i.e. "that government really doesn't have all that much control over COVID spread."? Are you unwilling to admit that policies adopted in red States contributed to the spread of COVID in them?
My point is that NY did much of its very high level of testing when there was little COVID in the community. If NY would have tested everyone and their mother in March of 2020, I am quite confident that NY's reported cases would be near the top of the country per capita.
===Are you unwilling to admit that policies adopted in red States contributed to the spread of COVID in them?===
Okay, look. It's common sense that if you shut things down and mandate vaccines and make everyone mask up, you're going to decrease spread of any respiratory pathogen to some extent. I do think the effects of those things are overrated and dwarfed by the effects of seasonality. I also think that stamping out COVID entirely is impossible (no more possible than stamping out the common cold), so COVID restriction measures at best kick the can down the road a bit. While waiting for a vaccine, it might have made sense to do that nonetheless. Now that vaccines are readily available (and ESPECIALLY in the near future when two new proven therapeutics are coming online), anti-COVID mandates and restrictions are pointless.
07 Nov 21
@sh76
The problem with stamping out the common cold is that there are like 200 different viruses that cause more or less the same symptoms.
07 Nov 21
@athousandyoung saidFirst, there are many variants of COVID as well.
@sh76
The problem with stamping out the common cold is that there are like 200 different viruses that cause more or less the same symptoms.
Second, whatever steps would be effective enough to stop transmissions of the highly contagious COVID virus would likely be effective in stopping transmissions of most or all (less contagious) cold/flu variants.
It's impossible. Even if humans ceased all movement for 3 weeks, there is plenty of animal reservoir for COVID to survive in.
Zero COVID was always a mirage.
07 Nov 21
@sh76 saidWell if we eradicated it it would be via vaccines like polio not trying to stop transmission. We could probably eradicate TB for example.
First, there are many variants of COVID as well.
Second, whatever steps would be effective enough to stop transmissions of the highly contagious COVID virus would likely be effective in stopping transmissions of most or all (less contagious) cold/flu variants.
It's impossible. Even if humans ceased all movement for 3 weeks, there is plenty of animal reservoir for COVID to survive in.
Zero COVID was always a mirage.
08 Nov 21
@athousandyoung saidCorrect. Viruses can be eliminated by almost universal use of highly effective vaccines.
Well if we eradicated it it would be via vaccines like polio not trying to stop transmission. We could probably eradicate TB for example.
While the COVID vaccines are awesome (and I'm super-grateful to receive them), they do not appear to be effective enough against transmission to stamp out the virus even assuming universal vaccination. That the vaccine only helps fight off the virus once it's in the blood stream and coronaviruses can prosper in nasal passages and mucous is the probable reason.
08 Nov 21
@sh76 saidAnyone seriously asserting that the government of Florida has handled this pandemic better than the government of New York is an extreme partisan hack. Florida has managed to have 62% of their COVID deaths and a bit higher percentage of their total cases this year AFTER vaccination became available. NY has had about a 1/3 of each. More tellingly since DeSantis radically reduced all State restrictions and fought any local government ones, the State has suffered over 20,000 deaths and well over a million cases since July 31st (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/); New York has had less than 3000 deaths in the same period and even with its more extensive testing programs reported about 500,000 cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
NY's testing ramped up well after it got slammed in the initial wave. Come on. You remember March, 2020. Don't you? I don't know what it was like where you live but where I live, something like between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 people got COVID in the Spring of 2020. Testing was a pain in the neck. According to IHME estimates, actual daily infections peaked in NY on March 16. In early M ...[text shortened]... two new proven therapeutics are coming online), anti-COVID mandates and restrictions are pointless.
I remember last year in Spring when you were insisting that the FR from COVID was ridiculously low and assuming that virtually everyone in NY had already had it by your projections. I do not recall you ever admitting that you had been laughably wrong about it. So you'll excuse me if I don't take your "confidence" in anything COVID related seriously.
Your "seasonality" arguments assumed there would be an increase in cases in the North and Midwest in the last few months (that's what you wrote in September). However, in reality, cases are receding in all the four geographical subdivisions of the US. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/26/briefing/covid-cases-falling-delta.html
You and DeSantis have continually opposed "common sense" measures to control the virus (no one has claimed it could be "eradicated" so you can tuck that Strawman away). You have bitterly complained about masking a population of the unvaccinated in crowded, indoor venues even knowing this is a perfect medium for the spread of the virus.
Measures can't be both "common sense" and "pointless" as your post deems them. I know you are trying to justify DeSantis' insanely murderous policies as you see him as a more acceptable messenger of right wing policies than a crass moron like Trump, but really partisanship can only go so far. Failing to admit that policies like his and other Republican governors has contributed to more deaths and misery through the spread of this disease is counterfactual propaganda.
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08 Nov 21
@no1marauder saidAnti-vax people are dying
New York has tested at a rate double that of Florida's and 4th highest in the nation.
Looking at the list I provided you. are you so confident in your statement provided in the OP i.e. "that government really doesn't have all that much control over COVID spread."? Are you unwilling to admit that policies adopted in red States contributed to the spread of COVID in them?
https://news.yahoo.com/red-america-now-dying-covid-121640335.html
09 Nov 21
@sh76 saidNew York was hit with an early surge that inundated their health system before we had a clear idea of what we were dealing with, nor did we have the tools to fight it. Remember the "respirator shortage" fiasco? No one knew what we were dealing with.
===I'm open to your ideas and I frequently change my mind in light of new information. Can you say the same?===
Absolutely, yes. If you want examples, give me a topic and I'll share how I've adjusted my thinking on it.
===Simple interventions in florida would have saved lives. ===
After a careful cost-benefit analysis, taking into account the limited scope that governme ...[text shortened]... t put into place that other states have and that definitely would have passed cost-benefit analyses.
Florida benefitted from avoiding that first wave. And yet they STILL ended up having a terrible death toll. 35% higher per capita than California. Thousands of unnecessary deaths. They had a late-pandemic surge in deaths that should not be acceptable from a public health perspective. We knew what to do, and the leadership simply refused based on political calculations. There's no reason we can't have a healthy economy during a pandemic, as long as appropriate public health precautions are in place.
Post-Delta wave (again, now we have tools to combat disease), Florida is the only state with over 1 in 1,000 deaths from COVID. This was preventable.
09 Nov 21
@wildgrass saidA state with a lot of old people that moved there to retire are dying at a higher rate. Big surprise.
New York was hit with an early surge that inundated their health system before we had a clear idea of what we were dealing with, nor did we have the tools to fight it. Remember the "respirator shortage" fiasco? No one knew what we were dealing with.
Florida benefitted from avoiding that first wave. And yet they STILL ended up having a terrible death toll. 35% higher per ...[text shortened]... at disease), Florida is the only state with over 1 in 1,000 deaths from COVID. This was preventable.
09 Nov 21
@metal-brain saidMaine has a slightly higher percentage of people over 65 than Florida (https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/) yet its COVID death rate is less than 1/3 that of Florida. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
A state with a lot of old people that moved there to retire are dying at a higher rate. Big surprise.
09 Nov 21
@no1marauder saidFL is a retirement state. After retirement people tend to sit around and get unhealthy. They don't have as much purpose in life and their health suffers and some die sooner if they don't get a satisfying hobby. Some put off retirement for that reason, then they retire at a relatively older age.
Maine has a slightly higher percentage of people over 65 than Florida (https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/) yet its COVID death rate is less than 1/3 that of Florida. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
How many people in FL and MN are 80 and older?
09 Nov 21
@no1marauder said===Your "seasonality" arguments assumed there would be an increase in cases in the North and Midwest in the last few months (that's what you wrote in September). However, in reality, cases are receding in all the four geographical subdivisions of the US. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/26/briefing/covid-cases-falling-delta.html===
Anyone seriously asserting that the government of Florida has handled this pandemic better than the government of New York is an extreme partisan hack. Florida has managed to have 62% of their COVID deaths and a bit higher percentage of their total cases this year AFTER vaccination became available. NY has had about a 1/3 of each. More tellingly since DeSantis radically r ...[text shortened]... ntributed to more deaths and misery through the spread of this disease is counterfactual propaganda.
You'd better check again. According to covidestim, cases are rising in most of the upper midwest.
The Rt, again according to that site, is:
MN - 1.41
MI - 1.06
WI - 1.15
OH- 1.57
NE - 1.23
Iowa and Illinois are still under 1, but cases are certainly poised to rise in the UM as their winter sets in.
It's telling that you conflate my assertion that it's common sense that the measures will reduce COVID with the idea that government should enact them. Mask mandates in school can be both somewhat helpful in reducing respiratory virus spread and a terrible idea - and it is.
===I do not recall you ever admitting that you had been laughably wrong about it. So you'll excuse me if I don't take your "confidence" in anything COVID related seriously.===
Okay, now you're just being a jackass. I admitted many times that my quoting of optimistic IFR projections such as the Stanford study turned out to be inaccurate. I don't know what more you want. On the other hand, history has shown that I was 100% right that opening schools in Florida would not arrest the fall in FL COVID cases and your Chicken Little prediction that DeSantis not forcing Kindergarteners to wear cloth face coverings would cause another spike turned out to have been flat out wrong. So, save some crow for yourself.