19 Apr 20
The post that was quoted here has been removedDenmark's population density is 6 times that of Sweden's while Norway's and Finland's is only slightly less. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_the_Nordic_countries
Since we know that population density is an important factor in the spread of an epidemic, I prefer to keep comparing apples to apples rather than toss in an orange.
19 Apr 20
@no1marauder saidPopulation density in entire countries or in specific locations?
Denmark's population density is 6 times that of Sweden's while Norway's and Finland's is only slightly less. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_the_Nordic_countries
Since we know that population density is an important factor in the spread of an epidemic, I prefer to keep comparing apples to apples rather than toss in an orange.
You are such a simpleton.
19 Apr 20
@eladar saidWhat do you think should be a more accurate death rate ?
The 2 percent death rate has been shown to be complete trash, just used for hype.
Here’s what i pulled off Worldometer (country-infections/deaths-% )
Spain - 196664/20595 - 10.5%
Italy - 178972/23660 - 13.2%
UK - 120067/16060 - 13.4%
France - 152894/19718 - 12.9%
US - 761357/40416 - 5.3%
Take the 2% .
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19 Apr 20
1 edit
@mghrn55 saidDo you have any speculation about where the substantial error might be in your calculation? Otherwise, I applaud your efforts to be mathematically concise.
What do you think should be a more accurate death rate ?
Here’s what i pulled off Worldometer (country-infections/deaths-% )
Spain - 196664/20595 - 10.5%
Italy - 178972/23660 - 13.2%
UK - 120067/16060 - 13.4%
France - 152894/19718 - 12.9%
US - 761357/40416 - 5.3%
Take the 2% .
@mghrn55 saidWorldometer is a propaganda tool for the authoritarian government types.
What do you think should be a more accurate death rate ?
Here’s what i pulled off Worldometer (country-infections/deaths-% )
Spain - 196664/20595 - 10.5%
Italy - 178972/23660 - 13.2%
UK - 120067/16060 - 13.4%
France - 152894/19718 - 12.9%
US - 761357/40416 - 5.3%
Take the 2% .
What percent of the populations of the world have been tested for antibodies?
19 Apr 20
@joe-shmo saidFirst of all, not much effort. Worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Do you have any speculation about where the substantial error might be in your calculation? Otherwise, I applaud your efforts.
It’s all there. Just a calculator required..
Possible data gap you ask ? Possible areas.
1. Deaths lag behind reported infections by about 2 weeks.
That will drive the death rate up.
2. Infections not being reported in a timely manner due to testing issues.
Improving testing will drive the death rate down.
I’m sure the experts in modelling have a better handle on this than I do.
Without getting into politics.
19 Apr 20
@eladar saidWatching FOX Propaganda again, I see ?
Worldometer is a propaganda tool for the authoritarian government types.
What percent of the populations of the world have been tested for antibodies?
You don’t seem to realize that you are spewing the propaganda here.
Please read my previous post in this thread.
In country A, there are X infections and Y deaths.
What exactly is it in raw numbers that makes you think that the data is propaganda, fake news or a hoax ??
You are so wrapped up in deflecting the heat from Trump that you have completely lost sight of simple facts.
19 Apr 20
@mghrn55 saidhttps://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-30/odds-of-hospitalization-death-with-covid-19-rise-steadily-with-age-study
Watching FOX Propaganda again, I see ?
You don’t seem to realize that you are spewing the propaganda here.
Please read my previous post in this thread.
In country A, there are X infections and Y deaths.
What exactly is it in raw numbers that makes you think that the data is propaganda, fake news or a hoax ??
You are so wrapped up in deflecting the heat from Trump that you have completely lost sight of simple facts.
As for the death rate, the risk was near zero for people under 40, crept up to 0.2% for people 40 to 49, to 0.6% for 50-somethings, just under 2% for people in their 60s, 4.3% for those in their 70s, and 7.8% for those in their 80s, the findings showed.
19 Apr 20
@eladar saidFor Gods' sakes. These are Case Fatality Rates, not Infection Fatality Ratios. The IFR depends on a quantity that we don't know, the number of infections. The CFR depends on the number of cases, but the number of cases depends on the testing policy. In the UK they started with a policy of tracing contacts and testing them, it became apparent that they would run out of precursor chemicals and so stopped the policy of tracing contacts because it had become unimplementable. After that all new cases were hospitalized cases. So the CFR started to rise.
Worldometer is a propaganda tool for the authoritarian government types.
What percent of the populations of the world have been tested for antibodies?
What the Case Fatality Rate is in a given country depends on their testing policy. Germany has a CFR of 3.15% this is because they managed to maintain an effective tracing of contacts policy and have tested practically everyone they can. This has borne fruit in that they had only 9 deaths today, compared with 596 in the UK. The UK's CFR is 13.4% because they are currently only testing hospitalized cases. The UK's IFR could be higher due to differences in minority backgrounds, but this is a relatively small effect.
The differences in CFR are down to the number of people tested, which affects the number of mild and asymptomatic cases found. The CFR is determined by policy in a way that the IFR is not. So a government could reduce it's CFR simply by testing more people. In Europe and the US the IFRs will be pretty similar.
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19 Apr 20
@mghrn55 saidThere is a massive number of undiagnosed - mild - or asymptotic cases missing from Worldometer’s total cases.
First of all, not much effort. Worldometers.info/coronavirus/
It’s all there. Just a calculator required..
Possible data gap you ask ? Possible areas.
1. Deaths lag behind reported infections by about 2 weeks.
That will drive the death rate up.
2. Infections not being reported in a timely manner due to testing issues.
Improving testing will drive the death rate down. ...[text shortened]... e the experts in modelling have a better handle on this than I do.
Without getting into politics.
When your coming up with 10.5% and the experts are saying 0.6%-0.7%, you’ve missed something substantial.
19 Apr 20
@DeepThought
Fatality rate is fatality rate. If you get this virus how likely is it that you will die. That is what the article was talking about.
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19 Apr 20
1 edit
@eladar saidI don’t believe having an incomplete data set is a criminal conspiracy. I think almost everyone has partial info at this point.
Worldometer is a propaganda tool for the authoritarian government types.
What percent of the populations of the world have been tested for antibodies?
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19 Apr 20
3 edits
@deepthought saidI can tell mghrn55 is trying to present the IFR, as the CFR. Improper use of terminology and an fundamental misunderstanding of said terminology is the real mixup here. Hopefully, your post clarified it.
For Gods' sakes. These are Case Fatality Rates, not Infection Fatality Ratios. The IFR depends on a quantity that we don't know, the number of infections. The CFR depends on the number of cases, but the number of cases depends on the testing policy. In the UK they started with a policy of tracing contacts and testing them, it became apparent that they would run out o ...[text shortened]... educe it's CFR simply by testing more people. In Europe and the US the IFRs will be pretty similar.