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Originally posted by PalynkaYes, that figure is pretty damning.
Exactly. Less than 0.2% chance of NOT being a cheater sounds pretty damning to me.
Also bear in mind that these are cludi's own statistics, from an analysis of his games that he ran. My analysis produced much higher statistics.
If I'm biased and my statistics have to be treated with scepticism, then you can say the same about cludi's statistics.
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Originally posted by no1marauderIt is not about sympathy and my own opinion as if to he is innocent or not I think I put my opinion on that quiet clearly.
I don't buy it. If he was so unconcerned about the controversy and it's possible ramifications, he wouldn't feel the need to post a long defense. The fact of his doing so and then fleeing seems to be an attempt to avoid a decision being made by the appropriate authorities here while still trying to manipulate public opinion. In short, he is trying to (an ...[text shortened]... rnering sympathy. But sympathy is not something an innocent person is terribly interested in.
It is about the way this was dragged out and you who is always stating facts and trivia from the legal system of all should be alarmed. Because reasonable doubt and all that in this case has not been applied.
And now the people who did not have the patience to wait for an official verdict are ushered into becoming the new mods.
Originally posted by no1marauderI think you haven't read what I posted nor to what part to your post I replied to cause this answer of yours makes no sense having that into account. I said that you saying that cludi's blog sentences beng wrong is wrong. He never said he already left RHP. By the verbe tenses on the sentences you can only say that he will leave RHP.
Semantics don't terribly matter in this case. But if you want to change it to "If a defendant stated his intention to leave a trial before the verdict was delivered, it would be circumstantial evidence of guilt" go ahead.
I don't know if he's guilty or not and at this stage I don't have any opinion. I don't have the said engines to mod his games and if I had I wouldn't certainly waste my time with it. All I know is what David Tebb said, and I have no reason not to trust him, what cludi has on his blog, and what Gatecrasher said recentely.
But like a few of other persons that posted in here I feel that this really is too much. Witch hunting, mud-slinging, I really have no patience to this. I think that the admin should have taken a stand much sooner on this issue. Pretending that nothing wasn't happening, when even little old me knew about this for a while now, only lead to this. They knew people knew, a lot of people sent feedback regarding this situation, and still nothing was said. Given the nature of the acused I don't thik this case should be handled in the normal way. Really posting in the Game mods forum that cludi was being investigated and that feedback was sent from a person we all know that cludi had good RHP relationships with just seems childish. yes it gives the "we treat everybody the same" look but I don't think this case should be taken care of like that.
I have some more thoughts on this issue but I'm jst way too lazy to type them all.
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Originally posted by PalynkaYou're taking that out of context.
Exactly. Less than 0.2% chance of NOT being a cheater sounds pretty damning to me.
I don't know how the game mod system worked, but apparently it was only proof beyond a reasonable doubt if it was more than ten times more accurate (less than 0.01% ).
Originally posted by wittywonkaWhat context? This context?
You're taking that out of context.
I don't know how the game mod system worked, but apparently it was only proof beyond a reasonable doubt if it was more than ten times more accurate (less than 0.01% ).
Mikhail Tal’s most notable games on Chessgames.com
10 games Top 3 matchup rate 88,7% - 23,95245109% probability of not cheating
…
Comparing with a great master of tomorrow
Magnus Carlsen’s games from his brillant Chorus 2008 win
13 games Top 3 matches 76,7% - 86,14708105% probability of not cheating
It even looks worse.
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Originally posted by David TebbHe obviously did a typo error if you compare his match with Fritz 86.9%
Yes, that figure is pretty damning.
Also bear in mind that these are cludi's own statistics, from an analysis of his games that he ran. My analysis produced much higher statistics.
If I'm biased and my statistics have to be treated with scepticism, then you can say the same about cludi's statistics.
and that of Tal 88.7% which he states is a approx. 24% chance of not cheat so his match-up would be about 20%.
Originally posted by no1marauderwell if you think about it statistically, it's about how many innocent people you're willing to sacrifice for the greater good. being 99.0% sure would burn 1 innocent out of every 100 investigation, 99.9% out of 1000 etc. -so it makes sense to put the threshold very low, to protect the innocent. all of the blatant ones will be caught with a large marging anyway.
HMM, you appear to be right. I guess I just found it hard to believe that 0,01 was the standard before someone is banned; no wonder why we're overrun with cheats!
Originally posted by dooser2004Erice1 also had a similar match-up rate when compared to Tal's. There must be more to this probability than simple match-up rates.
He obviously did a typo error if you compare his match with Fritz 86.9%
and that of Tal 88.7% which he states is a approx. 24% chance of not cheat so his match-up would be about 20%.
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Originally posted by dooser2004It's all a bit more complicated than that. But I can't really go into it, as the Game Mods have developed their own sophisticated methods for analysing and interpreting the statistics. I don't think I could explain it properly even if I wanted to.
He obviously did a typo error if you compare his match with Fritz 86.9%
and that of Tal 88.7% which he states is a approx. 24% chance of not cheat so his match-up would be about 20%.
I would be interested to know, at least in whatever sufficiently vague way it can be explained without giving up the shop, something about how these "probability of not cheating" numbers are calculated. e.g., how can Tal and cludi have such a similar matchup rate but such a hugely different "probability of not cheating"? What is the extra factor that's taken into account?
Without that knowledge, which is presumably only available to the game mods, I don't see how anyone can claim to be able to interpret these numbers.