07 Jan 12
Originally posted by tharkeshIf you were in charge of running the lottery and someone won 20 times in a row, you'd think "very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very lucky"? Well, at least nobody can call you cynical! 🙂
Winning 20 times in a row in the lottery is very unlikely. Not cheating. Just unlikely.
07 Jan 12
Originally posted by tharkeshWhen you are the owner of a casino, and someone wins 20-times in a row in roulette, black jack, or whatever, you don't argue, well this is very unlikely, but it happens. You rather consider that something dodgy is going on (I am not in any way familiar with casinos, but this is what I imagine is the reaction of the management to such an event).
That is either nonsense or shows, that you don't want to apply the rules of probability.
Winning 20 times in a row in the lottery is very unlikely. Not cheating. Just unlikely.
Originally posted by tharkeshToo unlikely. I don't think I could fit all the zeros in before the MTBF for my keyboard. The laws of probability say that if you have enough players playing enough games eventually one of them will get a 100% matchup rate. If the same player repeats the feat 20 times in a row he's a cheat. There's a miniscule probablity he's not a cheat.. but I vote he's banned anyway. It's like the monkeys and the typewriters. Eventually one of them will type the complete works of Shakespeare If you have 20 monkeys all typing the complete works of Shakespeare then it's Clan Metallica. No no.. I take that back.. there's only 19 of you. IT'S A JOKE GUYS. I feel like Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. No fights in the car park.
That is either nonsense or shows, that you don't want to apply the rules of probability.
Winning 20 times in a row in the lottery is very unlikely. Not cheating. Just unlikely.
Originally posted by thaughbaerBut will they see it as a joke or will they get you banned for upsetting the Clan?
If you have 20 monkeys all typing the complete works of Shakespeare then it's Clan Metallica. No no.. I take that back.. there's only 19 of you. IT'S A JOKE GUYS. I feel like Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. No fights in the car park.
No doubt shorty, rusty, mikey or the late uther will be along to barrack you .
07 Jan 12
Originally posted by thaughbaerJust imagine all the angry fingers, slamming keys as PMs are being created and sent to russ.
Too unlikely. I don't think I could fit all the zeros in before the MTBF for my keyboard. The laws of probability say that if you have enough players playing enough games eventually one of them will get a 100% matchup rate. If the same player repeats the feat 20 times in a row he's a cheat. There's a miniscule probablity he's not a cheat.. but I vote he's ...[text shortened]... A JOKE GUYS. I feel like Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. No fights in the car park.
Originally posted by Varenkahehe, yes. for sure.
If you were in charge of running the lottery and someone won 20 times in a row, you'd think "very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very lucky"? Well, at least nobody can call you cynical! 🙂
at least i couldn't go along and take away the 20 wins and put him to jail for cheating in lottery. i could start to look around.
and also, we are not talking about someone with matchup rates in the 80 or 90 range. About someone directly on the limit.
This shows two options: either she was very well aware of all of this and calculated the numbers accordingly...
or it was a mix of the four reasons i gave before (see below, so you dont have to dig).
These points could, theoretically, taken together account for a high match-up rate of Skeeter and a possible currently too low match-up-rate-limit...
1) GMs and IMs are studying and analyzing games with the help of engines, too. The style of engines influences the style of the student and may contribute to higher match-up rates (as believed by some GMs).
2) She is playing corresponding chess. As Gatecrasher says, some of the best CC players of the past had above average match-up rates.
3) We do not know the match-up rates of current GMs in CC. It can not be excluded, that the limits for match-up would have to be raised to higher numbers.
4) As you said, every statistic has its outlier, in particular when the starting conditions are violated they are more likely to happen. IF they happen, that does not mean, that they are not possible and have to be excluded because of low chances of appearing.
These are just four points, taken alone would not be enough, I guess. Certainly a combination of them is possible - all taken together give serious doubt. Not just little.
07 Jan 12
Originally posted by gambit05Don't visit the thread if you don't think you will get your chess fix from it. When something major like this happens, people come out of the woodwork to put in their two cents on the subject. What do you care if people are joking around in a chess forum. I wasn't aware this was a library.
Isn't it time to play some chess?
07 Jan 12
Originally posted by tharkeshEasy tharky... Skeeter was funny but she was not a comedy genius like myself. I've won 2 Emmys and written and produced 3 successful TV Series. No hang on.. that's Ricky Gervais again. Perhaps he's hacked my account. You'd think he had something better to do.
looks like Skeeter also hacked thaughbears account....
07 Jan 12
Originally posted by greenpawn34Ok, here are my 2p. After a glance of just a few seconds I had the following candiat moves:
[b]Hi Zyg...
You are right Carmine12 was over 2000 (?) at one time and now quit.
Still not happy with the standard of these games. Hardly a test.
Just need to clear a few things up from what I have seen so far.
Need your numbers.
ferreiraglenn v Skeeter. This position.
[fen]2bb4/R3rk2/2p2p2/P1P4p/1B1N1P1P/3K4/8/8 w - - 0 51[/fen]
Rxe2+ (comfortable: wins a pawn)
Nxc6 (similar, but knight ends up at a7 (less disirable)
Ra8 (catches the line of two bishops), but Rc2 defends B on f8 (there must be more{which I haven't seen in a few seconds}.