About 2 months out: Who will win, and why

@no1marauder said
On taxes, the "stick":

"Democrats will take action to reverse the Trump Administration’s tax cuts benefiting the wealthiest Americans and rewarding corporations for shipping American jobs overseas. We will crack down on overseas tax havens and close loopholes that are exploited by the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations. We will make sure the wealthy pay thei ...[text shortened]... etirement contributions and
providing more accessible tax breaks for homeownership."

pp. 22-23.

But if they DON'T do all that, is it a lie? Trump did all of his promises, still tweaking obamacare, but I digress.

So, will you be upset when we say liar when Biden does not do what he says he will do? Let's save time. Stipulate he will not do anything that will help the middle class. Even if he gave them our money it would not 'help' them.

@averagejoe1 said
But if they DON'T do all that, is it a lie? Trump did all of his promises, still tweaking obamacare, but I digress.

So, will you be upset when we say liar when Biden does not do what he says he will do? Let's save time. Stipulate he will not do anything that will help the middle class. Even if he gave them our money it would not 'help' them.

That in your Fairy Tale World, Trump "did all his promises" doesn't mean that has any relation to reality. Where's that 5-6% GNP growth we were promised for example? He even promised people like him would have higher taxes:

"Trump: My tax plan is 'going to cost me a fortune'"

https://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-2016-tax-plan-214139

No, I won't stipulate to obvious falsehoods.

@averagejoe1 said
But if they DON'T do all that, is it a lie? Trump did all of his promises, still tweaking obamacare, but I digress.

So, will you be upset when we say liar when Biden does not do what he says he will do? Let's save time. Stipulate he will not do anything that will help the middle class. Even if he gave them our money it would not 'help' them.

Since you're an expert on Trump's "accomplishments" in office, could you list all the major laws passed by Congress during his term in office that fulfilled his campaign promises?

@no1marauder said
Since you're an expert on Trump's "accomplishments" in office, could you list all the major laws passed by Congress during his term in office that fulfilled his campaign promises?

Not into adnauseum,, you know full well that he has accomplished amazing things, see the list, and then start writing adnausum about Congress......I am saying there is a list somewhere in the cloud showing his success. I am not going to read them anymore, and neither are you. Both of us are looking to the future , I assume. What do you think about the future, which is the title of this thread?

@averagejoe1 said
Not into adnauseum,, you know full well that he has accomplished amazing things, see the list, and then start writing adnausum about Congress......I am saying there is a list somewhere in the cloud showing his success. I am not going to read them anymore, and neither are you. Both of us are looking to the future , I assume. What do you think about the future, which is the title of this thread?

Maybe you're not aware, but outside of his tax cut, he hasn't gotten a single piece of major legislation that fulfilled his campaign promises through Congress and didn't even when both Houses were controlled by Republicans.

I think Trump will lose and the Democrats will hold the House and regain the Senate by a small margin. Whether they can fulfill many of their promises probably depends on how willing they are to end the filibuster in the Senate, though I would fully expect a tax reform, infrastructure package and other measures eligible for reconciliation to be passed.

@no1marauder said
Maybe you're not aware, but outside of his tax cut, he hasn't gotten a single piece of major legislation that fulfilled his campaign promises through Congress and didn't even when both Houses were controlled by Republicans.

I think Trump will lose and the Democrats will hold the House and regain the Senate by a small margin. Whether they can fulfill many of their promi ...[text shortened]... ct a tax reform, infrastructure package and other measures eligible for reconciliation to be passed.

Liberal comment, indeed. You interject legislation into my point which mentioned Trump accomplishments, of which there were about 100. I did not mention legislation. But go ahead with that, but as you suggest that I might not be aware, are you aware of the polls or whatever..... they are going up for Trump now. There was no bump after the convention, but Trump has had a serious bump after his convention he feels better get ready.

Would you please start a thread about Trump’s Bump’... I’ve got some stuff to do this afternoon!

@averagejoe1 said
Liberal comment, indeed. You interject legislation into my point which mentioned Trump accomplishments, of which there were about 100. I did not mention legislation. But go ahead with that, but as you suggest that I might not be aware, are you aware of the polls or whatever..... they are going up for Trump now. There was no bump after the convention, but Trump has had ...[text shortened]...

Would you please start a thread about Trump’s Bump’... I’ve got some stuff to do this afternoon!

Passing legislation creates these things called "laws" which are then binding. Trump's often illegal use of executive orders can be undone the moment that the next President takes over the Oval Office. And Trump often touted his ability to "make deals" to suggest he could easily get legislation passed that met his campaign promises. The fact is he failed miserably at doing so, even when he had a fully Republican Congress.

Not seeing this "bump". The convention ended on August 27th, at which point the RCP average had Biden with a 7.1% lead; the latest average has Biden's lead at 6.9%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

538 aggregate had Biden up 8.4% on August 27th and 8.1% now. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

So his "bump" is a few tenths of 1 percentage point.

@no1marauder said
Passing legislation creates these things called "laws" which are then binding. Trump's often illegal use of executive orders can be undone the moment that the next President takes over the Oval Office. And Trump often touted his ability to "make deals" to suggest he could easily get legislation passed that met his campaign promises. The fact is he failed miserably at doin ...[text shortened]... yeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

So his "bump" is a few tenths of 1 percentage point.

More of a pimple than a bump.

@handyandy said
More of a pimple than a bump.

To be fair, there has been few polls taken completely after the RNC convention, so it's possible that Trump might get a "bump" (and possible he won't). However, post-convention "bumps" are generally called "bumps" because they don't last.

Conventional wisdom says the race will tighten. We'll see if that is accurate - the evidence so far strongly suggests that the great majority of voters have already mind up their minds about Trump, that most think he has done an inadequate job and as this is a re-election campaign, I stick to my prediction that he will lose by something like 5%.

@no1marauder said
To be fair, there has been few polls taken completely after the RNC convention, so it's possible that Trump might get a "bump" (and possible he won't). However, post-convention "bumps" are generally called "bumps" because they don't last.

Conventional wisdom says the race will tighten. We'll see if that is accurate - the evidence so far strongly suggests that the grea ...[text shortened]... as this is a re-election campaign, I stick to my prediction that he will lose by something like 5%.

The dems will need 94% of the African American vote to win. Do you think Biden
can get that much?

I think that African Americans that VOTE are the ones that work, not the ones
that blow up Seattle. And there are many African Americans that got jobs that
didn't have one until Trump.

They may never admit in a poll that they are going to vote for Trump but behind
closed curtains... Ya never know.

@earl-of-trumps said
The dems will need 94% of the African American vote to win. Do you think Biden
can get that much?

I think that African Americans that VOTE are the ones that work, not the ones
that blow up Seattle. And there are many African Americans that got jobs that
didn't have one until Trump.

They may never admit in a poll that they are going to vote for Trump but behind
closed curtains... Ya never know.

It's amusingly pathetic that a right winger would rely on black votes to get Trump over the top. All your statements are ridiculous BS.

He won't do any better than his 8% in 2016 and will probably do worse. His unconcern (to say the least) towards police violence against POC has been noticed.

@no1marauder said
Passing legislation creates these things called "laws" which are then binding. Trump's often illegal use of executive orders can be undone the moment that the next President takes over the Oval Office. And Trump often touted his ability to "make deals" to suggest he could easily get legislation passed that met his campaign promises. The fact is he failed miserably at doin ...[text shortened]... yeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

So his "bump" is a few tenths of 1 percentage point.

For the record, Michigan had him at 8%,now he is at 3. I just write this for you, but after pollsters showed their ignorance with Hillary winning, surely you don't want to waste fingers typing about polls and ratings. Meaningless stuff, do that with someone else please. I myself said to a caller invading my privacy that I am going to vote for Biden. Surprise awaits, I guess.

Your paragraph above has an opinion about Trump, I have an opinion about Hillary. Do you want to type about all that into the wee hours? Opinions mean nothing....like, you say above (your opinion) he failed miserably. I say he failed at a few things. Should he be perfect. So, two opinions. Worthless. I like facts, thus my oft-stated reference to his accomplishments. What? You ask What Accomplishments? Jesus.

Yes, a new president or a court can set aside his executive order. But right NOW, what he ordered is enforceable until such deliberation. SO please tell our readers that you were not exactly correct above regarding his power to make the executive order.

@no1marauder said
No one was on "their property"; they were brandishing guns (in violation of the law) at people "in the street". None of their neighbors saw fit to do the same to "protect their property" (which was not endangered in the least).

How much of the Democratic Platform have you read? I bet none. Do I win?

EDIT: Here it is: https://www.demconvention.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-07-31-Democratic-Party-Platform-For-Distribution.pdf

"Which was not endangered in the least"..... Uhh, when was it finally established that the couple was not endangered, please. I figure it was sometime after they feared for their lives, enough to get out the weapons. Uh, they did not know that they were not in danger, so it was a perfectly reasonable since they thought they WERE in danger. Whew. Where is my Jack Daniel's, this is really difficult pulling common sense out to for lib who never says the "Whole" facts.

Like, you say that at the convention, that 'Under God' was not omitted. I'd heard it from a reliable source, so One Again, I drag myself to look up something that you left out, as libs do ad nauseum, and lo and behold, TWO of the caucuses going on DID leave it out. Please...I am begging. You are wearing me out, I am always correcting you for the good of the masses trying to find their way. 😕

@no1marauder said


I think Trump will lose and the Democrats will hold the House and regain the Senate by a small margin. Whether they can fulfill many of their promises probably depends on how willing they are to end the filibuster in the Senate, though I would fully expect a tax reform, infrastructure package and other measures eligible for reconciliation to be passed.

Surely you know how smart the hated Trump is, this 2 months is being fine-tuned to a fair ye well. You see in the news that the tide has turned, he will truly win. So we disagree.

Can't say about house and senate, but he's so good that it probably won't make any difference. If it will make everyone feel better, it is my opinion, that you (sociialists, communists, all the things you are) will have driven your ideas so hard into our society and garnered so many votes of the dependent masses with your promises, that you will sail in at the 2024 convention. Probably no one I know will be living under socialism, as we will all of course position ourselves and families as socialists, and not the people who will live under socialism. There is a difference, you know. Marauder is smart, and knows that, but it doesn't seem to bother him.

@no1marauder said
We'll see if that is accurate - the evidence so far strongly suggests that the great majority of voters have already mind up their minds about Trump, that most think he has done an inadequate job and as this is a re-election campaign, I stick to my prediction that he will lose by something like 5%.

My prediction, (and I think in terms of the Electoral College, while mobs think in terms of popular vote), is that he will receive over 300 electoral college votes.